Spiritforged has been in players' hands for about a week and Chinese players have had the set for over a month. The Runes League Winter League ran a 339-player Spiritforged tournament in Bologna back on January 10th, so we have some data to work with. Not a lot, but enough to get a rough picture of what 1,600 players are walking into this Friday.
The Draven problem
You can't talk about the Bologna meta without starting here: Draven is sitting at 18% global metashare and has been S-Tier on every list since Spiritforged dropped. At the Runes League Winter League in Bologna, he took 10 of 16 Top 16 spots and 5 of the Top 8. The winner played a new build called "Miracle Draven" that the community is still picking apart. Western events tell the same story: Runes & Rift's $1K tournament last weekend put four Dravens into the Top 8, with a Draven player taking the whole thing.
Draven did stumble in China, though. At Dalian, he failed to win the event for the first time all regional season, and Irelia actually beat him on conversion rate. That doesn't necessarily mean he's weak, but people are starting to figure him out and the Chinese metagame seems to be adapting faster than the Western one has.
The Riftbound design team said they believe there are "underexplored ways to attack Draven," particularly strategies that don't fold to the purple win-combat spells. The question is whether European players have found any of those strategies with only a week of Spiritforged in hand.
Tier breakdown heading into Bologna
S Tier: Draven
Draven has the highest popularity and the most top placements across every regional we have data for. The "Miracle Draven" variant that won the Winter League might be even stronger than the standard build. It leans harder on specific Spiritforged cards for mid-game tempo swings. If you don't have a Draven plan, you don't have a tournament plan.
Tier 1: Kai'Sa, Annie, Irelia
Kai'Sa is the other legend who's won a regional in both Origins and Spiritforged (she took Dalian). She and Annie will probably make up the bulk of the field in Bologna. Most players default to what they know, especially when they haven't had time to build something new.
Annie isn't really a sleeper anymore. Chinese players missed her ideal playstyle early on, but she woke up for Global Release and won Nanjing outright from just 7 entries in the field, per @riftboundstats. If 50 Annie players show up in Bologna instead of 7, the Top 8 could easily have multiple Annies in it.
Irelia might be the most consistent Day 2 legend right now. She converts well and beat Draven on rate for the first time at Dalian. Her problem is closing because she's made the Top 8 at all four Chinese Regional Opens and hasn't won any of them. Bologna could be where that changes, or we might see the same story again.
Tier 2: Viktor, Fiora, Azir, Sett, Sivir
Viktor took 5th at the Winter League and he's a solid pick if you're willing to put the reps in. He rewards precise play and can beat Draven when the draws line up.
Fiora and Azir haven't broken through at the top level yet, but neither one is bad. If someone walks in with a tech build tuned for the Bologna field, either deck could surprise competitors.
Sett is the dark horse I keep coming back to: per @riftboundstats, he put two players into the Top 16 at Nanjing from a small entry pool. The sample size is tiny but the signal is there and if someone has been grinding Sett in testing for the past month this is the tournament where it could pay off.
Tier 3: Everyone else
Lux, Jinx, Ahri, Master Yi, Ezreal, Miss Fortune, Darius, Ornn, Lucian, and Rek'Sai are all still alive. Master Yi took 7th at the Winter League, Rek'Sai had two Top 16 finishes, and Teemo snuck a 15th, but cracking the Top 8 in a 1,600-player field with any of these legends means you need a very specific metagame read and some luck on top of it.
Why Bologna won't look like China
Chinese players had Spiritforged in hand for weeks before any regional happened, giving them time to optimize lists and grind matchups while European players have had one week.
Players who've been on Annie or Kai'Sa since Origins are going to stick with what they know and splash in a few Spiritforged cards rather than rebuild from scratch. That means a lot of "comfort picks" so you may see more established legends than you would in a format that's had time to settle.
On the Draven side, the "Miracle Draven" build that won the Winter League is public knowledge now, but not everyone has had time to get the cards. Some players will be on the old list, some on the new one, and some on a hybrid they threw together Monday night. Draven's metashare will probably be high but the actual builds will be all over the place, so that's an opening for anyone who came prepared.
My predictions
Draven will be the most popular legend. I'd guess 20-25% of the field, with Kai'Sa and Annie behind him.
For Day 2 conversion, I like Irelia or Annie, as both have the tools and the results to back it up.
As for the winner, it's a coin flip between a well-prepared Draven player who has the Miracle build tuned and an Annie or Kai'Sa player who found the right anti-Draven tech. I'll give the edge to Draven because the field hasn't had enough time to adapt, but I'd love to be wrong.
The story I'm watching closest is Sett. If even one Sett player makes Top 8, it confirms what the Chinese data has been hinting at. If none do, I probably overread the Nanjing numbers.
I'll have a full results breakdown once the Top 8 is locked in, including how close (or how wrong) these predictions turned out. If you're competing this weekend or watching from home, hit me up on X at @shadow618tv and tell me what you're expecting, because I want to know if I'm the only one who thinks Sett has a real shot.
See you on the rift,
Shadow